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Standard Chartered gets crystal ball out

Standard Chartered gets crystal ball out

Standard Chartered Bank has this week released its latest research report, which sets out the bank’s predictions for the coming year. Kipp takes a quick look at the main bits.

December 13, 2010 2:55 by

“2011 will be characterised by an uneven recovery in the world economy, leading different authorities to adopt diverging policies. This may raise conflicts and uncertainties, but also bring opportunities.”

Okay, so as predictions go it’s not exactly groundbreaking. But what you’ve just read is the one sentence summary of this week’s Global Focus Report from Standard Chartered Bank. Brilliantly entitled “2011 – the year ahead”, the report actually offers a bit more information than that sentence suggests.

As Kipp regularly says, we don’t hold much truck with economic forecasts, but we do respect people who stick their neck on the line. So we’ve been through Standard Chartered’s report, and to save you the trouble; here are the key points we’ve taken away:

  • At a global level, it’s a tale of two economies, really. The West will be struggling with “debt, deflation and deleveraging,” leaving the US, for instance, with a below trend recovery “bordering on stagnation.” Europe, meanwhile, faces the possibility of the euro’s collapse. The other side of the story is the East and emerging economies, which will drive more than two thirds of the world’s economic growth.
  • At the Middle East and North African level, Standard Chartered sees growth across the region, but no boom. However, it points out the countries within the region vary wildly.
  • Lebanon is expected to continue growing, but more slowly. The report said recent growth has been “extraordinary.”

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