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Who was right?

Who was right?

The UAE economy grew in the first half of the year, but who has predicted the growth most accurately so far? Kipp wants to know who to believe in the future.

November 24, 2010 3:33 by

October 7, and everybody’s favourite international monetary fund, the International Monetary Fund, revised figures for the year. Months before it had predicted a measly 1.3 percent growth, now it was ready to call a more friendly 2.4 percent.

Less than a week later, the central bank governor of the UAE, Sultan Nasser Al-Suweidi, decided to not quite commit to a prediction, saying growth of 3 to 4 percent would be “reasonable” under current circumstances. Way to commit yourself.

A week after that, Mohammed Al Shihhi, the UAE Economy Ministry’s Undersecretary, reiterated the department’s 2.5 percent average for the year. By now the Economist Intelligence Unit had jumped on the bandwagon with a prediction close to 2.5 percent.

Last but not least in our little round-up, the Energy Minister, Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli, got in on the act in November when he predicted 2.25 percent growth for the year.

So who’s closest so far?

We don’t have UAE figures, but we do have the Dubai numbers. According to the Dubai Statistics Center, growth for the first half of the year was 2.3 percent, making energy minister Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli our current winner if those numbers reflect the whole UAE. Of course, Abu Dhabi is likely to pull the number up; but then other emirates may pull it down, so we reckon Dubai’s numbers could be a pretty fair reflection so far.

Why not play along at home? Kipp says 2.75 for the year overall, UAE wide.

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